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Voting has commenced for general elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys suggesting that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again win the most seats, though experts believe the party stands little chance of joining the future coalition.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which in the last election pulled off a surprise first-place finish and established a multi-party all-conservative government that lasted barely a year, is currently slightly leading in the polls and is forecast to secure between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-seat house of representatives.

Nevertheless, the far-right party's popularity has declined since 2023, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. Every significant political group have stated they will not entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in the summer amid a dispute concerning his radical immigration proposals.

Major Parties and Forecasts

At the end of a election period dominated by topics such as immigration, healthcare costs, and the country's severe housing shortage, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, projected to win between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the centrist Democrats 66, projected to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the Freedom Party, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to lose seats, with some facing heavy losses.

Voting Process and Fragmentation

In the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just less than one percent of the vote yields a party one MP. Of the two dozen political groups contesting the election – which include parties for the over-50s, youth parties, for animals, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – as many as 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This high degree of division means that no one party is ever likely to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by multi-party governments – often including several groups in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the PVV ends up as the largest party yet is excluded from government. But, critics and analysts argue that winning the most seats does not guarantee government participation and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is a democratic outcome.

While the election result is uncertain and coalition talks may require months, analysts suggest that after the most extreme government in its recent history, the future government is expected to be a broad-based coalition led by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Election Day Details

Voting locations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, began operations at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A typically reliable exit poll is anticipated soon after closing time.

After the vote, an official negotiator will test potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in parliament. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the coming term and must face a vote of confidence in parliament before taking office.